Rainfall declined during the first 10 days of June, before increases were observed in mid-June.
The Sudan Meteorological Authority (SMA) reported by the end of May 2018 that southern parts of the country received above normal to normal rainfall, while near-normal rainfall has been recorded elsewhere. Overall, cumulative rainfall to date according to RFE 2.0 ranges between 25 to 75 mm over parts of southern, eastern, and western Sudan (Figure 1), which is near or above average, depending on the area. Field reports also indicate that above-average levels of vegetation have been observed in Northern Kordofan, the Bottana, region and scattered pastoral and agropastoral areas in the center of the country. In some parts of southern Gadarif and Blue Nile states, the amount of rainfall received over the course of May 2018 is sufficient for planting, which is one month earlier than normal. Performance of main season (June to September) rainfall has begun favorably over most areas of Sudan, with remote sensing products indicating early rainfall in May, and field reports suggesting an earlier than normal start of season. Despite recent improved fuel availability in Khartoum, persistent fuel shortages during the planting season and sharp price increases for agricultural inputs are likely to reduce planted area and yields during the 2018 agricultural season to below-average levels, despite forecasts for above-average main season rainfall across many areas of Sudan. Persistent long-term difficulties accessing foreign exchange in Sudan has resulted in severe fuel shortages and sharp increases in fuel prices between March and May 2018. However, the number of people requiring emergency food assistance is likely to remain at above normal levels during the harvest period. Food security outcomes are expected to improve starting in October, following seasonal improvements in livestock productivity and as households access own-produced foods and earn in-kind income from agricultural labor. Staple food prices are expected to remain very high through January 2019, even though harvests starting in October 2018 could lead to small declines. Across Sudan, assistance needs among poor households are likely to be higher than normal due to very high staple food prices. Between June and September 2018, IDPs in SPLM-N controlled areas of South Kordofan are likely to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), while poor households in North Darfur and Kassala states and IDPs in Jebel Marra will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
Sharp increases in staple food prices are likely to exacerbate the severity of food insecurity among populations affected by severe dryness and/or displacement in 2017.
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